Fact-checking a flyer showing unemployment and inflation rates of six West African countries
The Member of Parliament for Adaklu Constituency, Kwame Governs Agbodza, on April 5, 2024, shared an infographic that sought to compare inflation and unemployment rates in some countries in West Africa.
“We are surely doing something really wrong with our economy,” he captioned the flyer in a post on X (formerly Twitter). It attracted 62 comments, 141 reposts, 292 likes and was viewed by 27,700 people.
The flyer was supposedly designed by a group known as the Ghana Independent Economic Research and the source of data was attributed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
Figure 1: A screenshot of the X post
This fact-check report seeks to verify the claims shared.
Claim 1
The inflation rates of the six West African countries (Ghana, Togo, Nigeria, Liberia, Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire)
Fact-Check
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED) of Togo, “the inflation rate, calculated on the basis of the average indices of the last twelve months, at the national level stood at 4.4% in March 2024.” Therefore, the claim (2.2%) shared on April 5, 2024, by Kwame Agbodza, MP for Adaklu is inaccurate.
The National Bureau of Statistics of Nigeria has indicated that “In March 2024, the headline inflation rate increased to 33.20% relative to the February 2024 headline inflation rate which was 31.70%. Looking at the movement, the March 2024 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 1.50% points when compared to the February 2024 headline inflation rate.” Therefore, the figure attributed to Nigeria (23%) is false.
“The harmonized consumer price index (IHPC) for the month of March 2024 stands at 125.2, an increase of 0.5% compared to February 2024. Year-on-year, the index indicates an increase of 2.6%. In March 2023, the harmonized consumer price index respectively showed an increase of 0.6% month-on-month and an increase of 2.9% year-on-year,” the publication of the NISD said. Therefore, the March 2024 inflation rate of 3.0% according to the flyer is false.
The Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services’ (LISGIS) latest publication on the country’s inflation rate on March 5, 2024, indicated that the year-on-year inflation for February 2024 was 10.74% compared to February 2023 which recorded 8.27%.
“The Year-on-Year Inflation Rate as measured by the CPI was 10.74 percent. This rate of Inflation for February 2024 is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the last twelve months, from February 2023 to February 2024. Simply put, the data shows that the general price level increased by 10.74 percent on a Year-on-Year basis. The month recorded 2.47 percentage points increase from 8.27 in February 2023,” the agency explained.
According to publicly available data, the inflation rate shared on the flyer (8%) in relation to Liberia is wrong and misleading.
Meanwhile, the Cote d’Ivoire inflation for March 2024 published on April 16, 2024, is 4% compared to the previous month, February with 4.1%, according to the country’s National Institute of Statistics.
“The annual average inflation stands at (+4.0%) in March 2024, down 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month which stood at 4.1%. The inflation rate in Côte d’Ivoire is above the community threshold which is 3%,” the National Institute Of Statistics said.
Therefore the figure of 2.3% attributed to the West African country in the infographic and shared by the Adaklu Member of Parliament is False.
In the case of Ghana’s inflation at the time of Kwame Agbodza’s publication on April 5, 2024, GhanaFact found that the February inflation rate published on March 13, 2024, stood at 23.2%.
“The year-on-year inflation rate as measured by the CPI was 23.2 percent in February 2024 (Figure 1). This rate of inflation for February 2024 is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the twelve-month period, from February 2023 to February 2024. The monthly change rate for February 2024 is 1.6 percent,” the state statistics agency said.
However, the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) later updated the inflation rate for March to 25.8%. However, this rate was published on April 10, 2024.
“The year-on-year inflation rate as measured by the CPI was 25.8 percent in March 2024 (Figure 1). This rate of inflation for March 2024 is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the twelve-month period, from March 2023 to March 2024. The monthly change rate for March 2024 is 0.8 percent,” the GSS report stated.
This means the figure (23.2%) published on April 5, 2024, as Ghana’s inflation rate is accurate. However, the current update shows an increase in the country’s inflation rate.
Claim 2
The unemployment rates of the six West African countries (Ghana, Togo, Nigeria, Liberia, Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire)
Fact-Check
The data available from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics shows unemployment rate in quarter 3 of 2023 is 5%. Therefore, the figure of 5% shared in the infographic as Nigeria’s unemployment rate is accurate.
Source: NBS
The Ghana Statistical Service’s (GSS) latest report on unemployment shows that in the first three quarters of 2023, it stood at 14.7%.
“The average unemployment rate for the first three quarters of 2023 was 14.7 percent, with the rate among females consistently higher than males. The sharp increase in the unemployment rate of females between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 has culminated in a wider unemployment gender gap in 2023 relative to 2022.”
Source: GSS
Therefore, the figure 14.7% in the infographic shared by the Adaklu Member of Parliament is accurate.
According to the National Basic Survey on Employment and the Informal Sector Report published in January 2024, depending on the area of residence, the urban area is more affected by unemployment than rural areas.
“On average, 7 people out of 100 aged 16 or over are unemployed at the urban level, while at the rural level, around 4 people out of 100 are unemployed. Ouagadougou, which is the largest urban center in the country, is the most affected by unemployment at the urban level, while at the rural level, around 4 people out of 100 are unemployed. (8.7%) than other urban areas taken together (6%),” the report explained.
Source: NISD
Therefore, the claim that Burkina Faso’s unemployment rate is 6.39% is false.
Meanwhile, efforts by GhanaFact to obtain unemployment data from the national statistics agencies of Togo, Liberia and Cote d’Ivoire were futile. Therefore, GhanaFact will use data from the Bretton Wood Institutions to verify the unemployment claims attributed to these countries.
The World Bank’s latest unemployment rate in Liberia was published in 2023, and it was at 2.9%. Also, unemployment data from the World Bank’s latest publication on Cote d’Ivoire as of 2023 shows a rate of 2.4% while Togo’s unemployment according to the World Bank in 2023, is 3.4%.
Therefore, the figures attributed to Togo (4.0%), Liberia (3.02%) and Cote d’Ivoire (2.49%) are inaccurate.
